Carmarthenshire · report
House prices in Carmarthenshire: the next 12 months
Sale prices have an 80% chance of landing between £183,840 and £205,591 by August 2027.
- Expected, August 2027
- £194,716
- Chance of a rise
- 47%
Carmarthenshire: five years of prices and the expected path
Average sale price per home, £, monthly, with the next 12 months' expected path
- Carmarthenshire
- Wales
- United Kingdom
- Expected path
- 80% range
Show the numbers
| Period | Carmarthenshire | Wales | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2027 · Expected path | £194,716 (£183,840–£205,591) | £224,653 | £280,154 |
| Jul 2027 · Expected path | £194,761 (£184,482–£205,041) | £223,962 | £279,560 |
| Jun 2027 · Expected path | £194,807 (£185,134–£204,480) | £223,271 | £278,967 |
| May 2027 · Expected path | £194,853 (£185,800–£203,905) | £222,581 | £278,374 |
| Apr 2027 · Expected path | £194,898 (£186,482–£203,315) | £221,890 | £277,781 |
| Mar 2027 · Expected path | £194,944 (£187,183–£202,705) | £221,199 | £277,188 |
| Feb 2027 · Expected path | £194,989 (£187,910–£202,069) | £220,508 | £276,595 |
| Jan 2027 · Expected path | £195,035 (£188,670–£201,400) | £219,817 | £276,002 |
| Dec 2026 · Expected path | £195,081 (£189,476–£200,685) | £219,126 | £275,409 |
| Nov 2026 · Expected path | £195,126 (£190,350–£199,902) | £218,436 | £274,816 |
| Oct 2026 · Expected path | £195,172 (£191,337–£199,006) | £217,745 | £274,223 |
| Sep 2026 · Expected path | £195,217 (£192,553–£197,882) | £217,054 | £273,630 |
| Aug 2026 | £195,263 | £216,363 | £273,037 |
| Jul 2026 | £198,168 | £214,167 | £272,146 |
| Jun 2026 | £196,985 | £212,315 | £270,690 |
| May 2026 | £193,081 | £215,787 | £272,221 |
| Apr 2026 | £192,694 | £213,662 | £270,966 |
| Mar 2026 | £193,540 | £214,009 | £268,631 |
| Feb 2026 | £196,458 | £212,147 | £269,423 |
| Jan 2026 | £194,141 | £210,347 | £268,814 |
| Dec 2025 | £194,708 | £212,902 | £268,002 |
| Nov 2025 | £194,135 | £210,567 | £270,472 |
| Oct 2025 | £193,582 | £211,527 | £269,819 |
| Sep 2025 | £193,246 | £211,004 | £269,556 |
| Aug 2025 | £190,122 | £209,851 | £270,575 |
| Jul 2025 | £187,744 | £209,546 | £268,843 |
| Jun 2025 | £186,274 | £209,486 | £266,796 |
| May 2025 | £186,790 | £206,642 | £264,078 |
| Apr 2025 | £187,306 | £205,275 | £260,162 |
| Mar 2025 | £188,472 | £207,151 | £268,019 |
| Feb 2025 | £188,108 | £205,266 | £264,771 |
| Jan 2025 | £192,385 | £206,010 | £264,936 |
| Dec 2024 | £191,799 | £204,641 | £263,991 |
| Nov 2024 | £193,562 | £207,435 | £264,515 |
| Oct 2024 | £190,333 | £207,454 | £265,252 |
| Sep 2024 | £190,066 | £203,822 | £264,750 |
| Aug 2024 | £191,218 | £207,156 | £265,085 |
| Jul 2024 | £189,881 | £204,982 | £262,479 |
| Jun 2024 | £188,453 | £204,368 | £259,585 |
| May 2024 | £188,816 | £199,330 | £258,565 |
| Apr 2024 | £186,549 | £199,545 | £256,478 |
| Mar 2024 | £186,197 | £200,795 | £255,082 |
| Feb 2024 | £183,041 | £199,272 | £254,633 |
| Jan 2024 | £184,411 | £197,808 | £255,972 |
| Dec 2023 | £187,249 | £202,077 | £256,177 |
| Nov 2023 | £186,761 | £201,778 | £258,368 |
| Oct 2023 | £189,729 | £202,477 | £260,129 |
| Sep 2023 | £187,031 | £204,460 | £261,318 |
| Aug 2023 | £188,139 | £203,852 | £262,602 |
| Jul 2023 | £185,973 | £202,620 | £261,182 |
| Jun 2023 | £189,502 | £200,183 | £258,275 |
| May 2023 | £191,105 | £199,616 | £257,330 |
| Apr 2023 | £192,752 | £195,717 | £256,479 |
| Mar 2023 | £192,323 | £199,167 | £255,885 |
| Feb 2023 | £192,426 | £200,870 | £258,788 |
| Jan 2023 | £195,459 | £201,853 | £260,941 |
| Dec 2022 | £196,878 | £206,563 | £263,190 |
| Nov 2022 | £197,339 | £205,941 | £265,299 |
| Oct 2022 | £194,754 | £208,209 | £265,693 |
| Sep 2022 | £191,031 | £207,696 | £265,727 |
| Aug 2022 | £188,272 | £204,218 | £265,124 |
| Jul 2022 | £183,881 | £203,313 | £262,904 |
| Jun 2022 | £182,924 | £200,277 | £258,118 |
| May 2022 | £181,231 | £196,682 | £255,040 |
| Apr 2022 | £180,123 | £195,875 | £252,167 |
| Mar 2022 | £177,006 | £191,471 | £249,232 |
| Feb 2022 | £171,260 | £189,656 | £248,309 |
| Jan 2022 | £172,821 | £191,552 | £248,031 |
| Dec 2021 | £171,625 | £189,741 | £245,189 |
| Nov 2021 | £174,442 | £186,520 | £243,930 |
| Oct 2021 | £170,136 | £186,951 | £239,236 |
| Sep 2021 | £168,559 | £185,561 | £245,371 |
What the model expects
The central estimate at each horizon, and the range prices land in 8 times out of 10.
| Horizon | Expected | 80% range | Chance of a rise | Chance of beating inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 3 months (November 2026) | £195,126 | £190,350 – £199,902 | 49% | 31% |
| In 4 months (December 2026) | £195,081 | £189,476 – £200,685 | 48% | 29% |
| In 12 months (August 2027) | £194,716 | £183,840 – £205,591 | 47% | 19% |
The outlook carries the region's own monthly price history forward: the recent trend and how far prices usually stray from it. It knows nothing about interest-rate decisions, new laws or local projects, so read it as a description of momentum, not a forecast to act on.
Other reports for Carmarthenshire
At the average sale price, a home costs £195,263. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is £901 a month. The UK sets no cap on the payment; no more than 15% of new mortgages may lend over 4.5 times income.
- Payment, two incomes
- 14%
- Payment, one income
- 29%
Renting the average home costs less each month than owning it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the average sale price; rent is the average of all private tenancies. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.
- Rent per month
- £690
- Owning per month
- £919
24.2% fewer homes were started in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.
- Started, 12 months
- 193
- Per 1,000 residents
- 1.0
Figures for United Kingdom: Carmarthenshire has no reliable figures of its own.
Buyers living abroad bought 1.8% of the homes sold here in the four quarters to Q1 2025.
- Bought by buyers abroad, 12 months
- 1.8%
Sale prices have fallen by 3% or more 7 times since 1995. The deepest began in December 2007.
- Deepest fall
- −22.9%
- Recovery from the low
- 125 months
In 2025 the population fell by 318 while 217 homes were finished.
- Homes finished, 2025
- 217
- Population change, 2025
- −318
7.7% of the 89,404 homes counted in the 2021 census had nobody usually living in them.
- Empty, 2021 census
- 7.7%
- Empty homes
- 6,875