Caerphilly · report
House prices in Caerphilly: the next 12 months
Sale prices have an 80% chance of landing between £192,405 and £220,972 by August 2027.
- Expected, August 2027
- £206,689
- Chance of a rise
- 77%
Caerphilly: five years of prices and the expected path
Average sale price per home, £, monthly, with the next 12 months' expected path
- Caerphilly
- Wales
- United Kingdom
- Expected path
- 80% range
Show the numbers
| Period | Caerphilly | Wales | United Kingdom |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 2027 · Expected path | £206,689 (£192,405–£220,972) | £224,653 | £280,154 |
| Jul 2027 · Expected path | £206,010 (£192,439–£219,580) | £223,962 | £279,560 |
| Jun 2027 · Expected path | £205,331 (£192,493–£218,170) | £223,271 | £278,967 |
| May 2027 · Expected path | £204,653 (£192,569–£216,736) | £222,581 | £278,374 |
| Apr 2027 · Expected path | £203,974 (£192,673–£215,275) | £221,890 | £277,781 |
| Mar 2027 · Expected path | £203,295 (£192,810–£213,781) | £221,199 | £277,188 |
| Feb 2027 · Expected path | £202,617 (£192,990–£212,244) | £220,508 | £276,595 |
| Jan 2027 · Expected path | £201,938 (£193,224–£210,652) | £219,817 | £276,002 |
| Dec 2026 · Expected path | £201,260 (£193,532–£208,987) | £219,126 | £275,409 |
| Nov 2026 · Expected path | £200,581 (£193,947–£207,215) | £218,436 | £274,816 |
| Oct 2026 · Expected path | £199,902 (£194,534–£205,271) | £217,745 | £274,223 |
| Sep 2026 · Expected path | £199,224 (£195,462–£202,986) | £217,054 | £273,630 |
| Aug 2026 | £198,545 | £216,363 | £273,037 |
| Jul 2026 | £196,768 | £214,167 | £272,146 |
| Jun 2026 | £197,743 | £212,315 | £270,690 |
| May 2026 | £197,610 | £215,787 | £272,221 |
| Apr 2026 | £198,257 | £213,662 | £270,966 |
| Mar 2026 | £195,969 | £214,009 | £268,631 |
| Feb 2026 | £194,645 | £212,147 | £269,423 |
| Jan 2026 | £190,762 | £210,347 | £268,814 |
| Dec 2025 | £191,397 | £212,902 | £268,002 |
| Nov 2025 | £189,780 | £210,567 | £270,472 |
| Oct 2025 | £190,695 | £211,527 | £269,819 |
| Sep 2025 | £188,633 | £211,004 | £269,556 |
| Aug 2025 | £190,185 | £209,851 | £270,575 |
| Jul 2025 | £189,543 | £209,546 | £268,843 |
| Jun 2025 | £186,217 | £209,486 | £266,796 |
| May 2025 | £182,019 | £206,642 | £264,078 |
| Apr 2025 | £181,029 | £205,275 | £260,162 |
| Mar 2025 | £186,311 | £207,151 | £268,019 |
| Feb 2025 | £188,713 | £205,266 | £264,771 |
| Jan 2025 | £190,718 | £206,010 | £264,936 |
| Dec 2024 | £190,022 | £204,641 | £263,991 |
| Nov 2024 | £190,378 | £207,435 | £264,515 |
| Oct 2024 | £186,863 | £207,454 | £265,252 |
| Sep 2024 | £185,271 | £203,822 | £264,750 |
| Aug 2024 | £184,320 | £207,156 | £265,085 |
| Jul 2024 | £184,108 | £204,982 | £262,479 |
| Jun 2024 | £180,795 | £204,368 | £259,585 |
| May 2024 | £178,351 | £199,330 | £258,565 |
| Apr 2024 | £178,117 | £199,545 | £256,478 |
| Mar 2024 | £179,078 | £200,795 | £255,082 |
| Feb 2024 | £178,962 | £199,272 | £254,633 |
| Jan 2024 | £179,533 | £197,808 | £255,972 |
| Dec 2023 | £181,521 | £202,077 | £256,177 |
| Nov 2023 | £181,966 | £201,778 | £258,368 |
| Oct 2023 | £182,412 | £202,477 | £260,129 |
| Sep 2023 | £180,317 | £204,460 | £261,318 |
| Aug 2023 | £179,523 | £203,852 | £262,602 |
| Jul 2023 | £177,585 | £202,620 | £261,182 |
| Jun 2023 | £174,741 | £200,183 | £258,275 |
| May 2023 | £174,983 | £199,616 | £257,330 |
| Apr 2023 | £173,836 | £195,717 | £256,479 |
| Mar 2023 | £176,889 | £199,167 | £255,885 |
| Feb 2023 | £178,054 | £200,870 | £258,788 |
| Jan 2023 | £183,274 | £201,853 | £260,941 |
| Dec 2022 | £183,963 | £206,563 | £263,190 |
| Nov 2022 | £184,704 | £205,941 | £265,299 |
| Oct 2022 | £181,929 | £208,209 | £265,693 |
| Sep 2022 | £180,604 | £207,696 | £265,727 |
| Aug 2022 | £179,930 | £204,218 | £265,124 |
| Jul 2022 | £176,049 | £203,313 | £262,904 |
| Jun 2022 | £171,319 | £200,277 | £258,118 |
| May 2022 | £167,285 | £196,682 | £255,040 |
| Apr 2022 | £165,521 | £195,875 | £252,167 |
| Mar 2022 | £168,219 | £191,471 | £249,232 |
| Feb 2022 | £168,179 | £189,656 | £248,309 |
| Jan 2022 | £167,012 | £191,552 | £248,031 |
| Dec 2021 | £163,483 | £189,741 | £245,189 |
| Nov 2021 | £160,182 | £186,520 | £243,930 |
| Oct 2021 | £158,615 | £186,951 | £239,236 |
| Sep 2021 | £156,515 | £185,561 | £245,371 |
What the model expects
The central estimate at each horizon, and the range prices land in 8 times out of 10.
| Horizon | Expected | 80% range | Chance of a rise | Chance of beating inflation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| In 3 months (November 2026) | £200,581 | £193,947 – £207,215 | 65% | 52% |
| In 4 months (December 2026) | £201,260 | £193,532 – £208,987 | 67% | 53% |
| In 12 months (August 2027) | £206,689 | £192,405 – £220,972 | 77% | 54% |
The outlook carries the region's own monthly price history forward: the recent trend and how far prices usually stray from it. It knows nothing about interest-rate decisions, new laws or local projects, so read it as a description of momentum, not a forecast to act on.
Other reports for Caerphilly
At the average sale price, a home costs £198,545. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is £916 a month. The UK sets no cap on the payment; no more than 15% of new mortgages may lend over 4.5 times income.
- Payment, two incomes
- 16%
- Payment, one income
- 31%
Renting the average home costs less each month than owning it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the average sale price; rent is the average of all private tenancies. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.
- Rent per month
- £752
- Owning per month
- £935
47.0% more homes were started in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.
- Started, 12 months
- 312
- Per 1,000 residents
- 1.8
Figures for United Kingdom: Caerphilly has no reliable figures of its own.
Buyers living abroad bought 1.8% of the homes sold here in the four quarters to Q1 2025.
- Bought by buyers abroad, 12 months
- 1.8%
Sale prices have fallen by 3% or more 12 times since 1995. The deepest began in April 2008.
- Deepest fall
- −20.1%
- Recovery from the low
- 93 months
In 2025 the population fell by 152 while 247 homes were finished.
- Homes finished, 2025
- 247
- Population change, 2025
- −152
4.8% of the 80,211 homes counted in the 2021 census had nobody usually living in them.
- Empty, 2021 census
- 4.8%
- Empty homes
- 3,835