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Guarda · report

Past price cycles in Guarda

Bank valuations have fallen by 3% or more 10 times since 2015. The deepest began in August 2018.

Deepest fall
−18.9%
Recovery from the low
17 months

Prices in Guarda and Portugal, indexed

Bank valuations, both set to 100 in June 2015.

  • Guarda
  • Portugal
  • 100 = June 2015
Show the numbers
PeriodGuardaPortugal
Sep 2026203.4296.2
Aug 2026207.2293.1
Jul 2026211.8291.3
Jun 2026197.0289.7
May 2026193.9287.1
Apr 2026187.0282.7
Mar 2026191.1279.7
Feb 2026186.5275.9
Jan 2026186.2273.7
Dec 2025183.9270.6
Nov 2025182.9267.9
Oct 2025180.1263.3
Sep 2025181.8259.4
Aug 2025179.3255.5
Jul 2025179.3252.9
Jun 2025174.2248.5
May 2025173.9245.3
Apr 2025172.1242.7
Mar 2025165.7240.2
Feb 2025167.0235.4
Jan 2025159.3230.7
Dec 2024147.5227.2
Nov 2024141.2226.3
Oct 2024142.0223.8
Sep 2024148.9220.4
Aug 2024150.6216.4
Jul 2024149.8213.0
Jun 2024158.1210.4
May 2024149.8209.4
Apr 2024150.7207.5
Mar 2024144.2205.5
Feb 2024144.3202.9
Jan 2024136.3201.6
Dec 2023136.3199.7
Nov 2023127.4199.0
Oct 2023136.3199.7
Sep 2023139.9200.4
Aug 2023140.9200.0
Jul 2023141.7198.3
Jun 2023140.4197.4
May 2023139.7196.4
Apr 2023138.6193.9
Mar 2023131.7192.8
Feb 2023129.9192.2
Jan 2023126.1193.1
Dec 2022120.9189.6
Nov 2022124.5188.4
Oct 2022128.7184.7
Sep 2022136.3185.8
Aug 2022130.4183.9
Jul 2022118.4184.3
Jun 2022117.6183.0
May 2022116.6179.5
Apr 2022119.5176.3
Mar 2022120.0173.1
Feb 2022120.2170.9
Jan 2022120.2168.0
Dec 2021112.6167.1
Nov 2021122.5165.4
Oct 2021117.2162.7
Sep 2021119.7160.7
Aug 2021118.6158.8
Jul 2021119.9158.8
Jun 2021121.5158.0
May 2021119.2157.6
Apr 2021118.2156.0
Mar 2021113.6154.4
Feb 2021125.5152.7
Jan 2021117.2152.1
Dec 2020118.4150.3
Nov 2020117.2148.8
Oct 2020119.4147.1
Sep 2020118.2146.7
Aug 2020118.1146.7
Jul 2020116.3146.6
Jun 2020115.1145.5
May 2020117.2144.9
Apr 2020114.6144.5
Mar 2020114.6144.3
Feb 2020114.3144.5
Jan 2020114.6143.4
Dec 2019116.9141.9
Nov 2019117.4139.9
Oct 2019109.4139.0
Sep 201997.5138.6
Aug 2019104.1137.1
Jul 2019106.7135.8
Jun 2019114.9133.9
May 2019109.5133.0
Apr 2019105.4132.0
Mar 2019100.3130.8
Feb 2019104.3130.0
Jan 2019104.9127.8
Dec 2018110.3127.0
Nov 2018105.1125.9
Oct 2018110.8125.7
Sep 2018111.7124.7
Aug 2018120.2123.7
Jul 2018109.5122.4
Jun 2018105.7121.2
May 2018106.1120.8
Apr 2018106.2120.2
Mar 2018107.2119.6
Feb 2018106.6118.5
Jan 2018105.9117.3
Dec 2017108.4115.9
Nov 2017110.0115.6
Oct 2017110.0115.2
Sep 2017106.2114.6
Aug 2017110.2112.9
Jul 2017107.6112.0
Jun 2017106.4111.8
May 2017102.3111.4
Apr 201799.0111.1
Mar 201798.7110.4
Feb 201798.9110.1
Jan 2017106.9109.4
Dec 2016106.2108.3
Nov 2016106.4107.4
Oct 2016103.9106.6
Sep 201699.0106.1
Aug 2016102.5105.9
Jul 201691.0104.8
Jun 201690.8104.4
May 201697.4104.0
Apr 201693.9103.3
Mar 201692.9102.5
Feb 201685.7102.1
Jan 201691.1102.1
Dec 201589.0102.5
Nov 201593.4101.8
Oct 201592.8101.4
Sep 201593.8101.0
Aug 201598.9100.7
Jul 2015100.0100.9
Jun 2015100.0100.0

Every fall of 3% or more

From the peak to the lowest month after it, and how long prices took to get back.

PeakLowFallMonths fallingMonths to recover
July 2015February 2016−14.3%76
August 2016September 2016−3.4%11
January 2017March 2017−7.7%24
August 2017June 2018−4.0%102
August 2018September 2019−18.9%1317
February 2021December 2021−10.2%108
September 2022December 2022−11.3%34
July 2023November 2023−10.1%43
June 2024November 2024−10.7%52
July 2026September 2026−4.0%2Not yet

Portugal against the EU since 2015

Eurostat's house price index for all dwellings, 2015 = 100. National figures, comparable across member states.

  • Portugal
  • EU
  • 2015 = 100
Show the numbers
PeriodPortugalEU
Q2 2026301.4168.6
Q1 2026291.0166.5
Q4 2025280.2164.6
Q3 2025269.4163.5
Q2 2025258.8161.0
Q1 2025247.1158.5
Q4 2024235.7156.2
Q3 2024228.9155.1
Q2 2024220.7152.7
Q1 2024212.5149.8
Q4 2023211.3148.9
Q3 2023208.5149.1
Q2 2023204.7148.2
Q1 2023198.6147.6
Q4 2022195.9148.7
Q3 2022193.8150.9
Q2 2022188.3149.6
Q1 2022182.6146.2
Q4 2021176.0143.2
Q3 2021171.3140.2
Q2 2021166.4136.0
Q1 2021161.7132.1
Q4 2020157.7129.8
Q3 2020153.6128.1
Q2 2020154.3126.3
Q1 2020151.7124.4
Q4 2019146.1122.7
Q3 2019143.7121.5
Q2 2019140.7119.8
Q1 2019137.1117.6
Q4 2018132.3116.8
Q3 2018129.7115.9
Q2 2018128.5114.2
Q1 2018125.6112.3
Q4 2017121.1111.2
Q3 2017119.6110.4
Q2 2017115.5108.8
Q1 2017111.9106.9
Q4 2016109.6106.1
Q3 2016108.3105.4
Q2 2016106.9103.8
Q1 2016103.7102.0
Q4 2015101.8101.1
Q3 2015100.7100.8
Q2 2015100.699.8
Q1 201596.998.3

Bank valuations go back to 2011, so they include the fall after the euro crisis; asking prices start in 2015. A fall counts once prices drop 3% below a peak, and ends when they are back at it.

Other reports for Guarda

Next 12 months

Asking prices have an 80% chance of landing between €1,224/m² and €1,464/m² by September 2027.

Expected, September 2027
€1,344/m²
Chance of a rise
99%

Affordability

At the bank valuation, a 90 m² home costs €111,510. With 10% down and a 30-year mortgage, the payment is €423 a month. Banco de Portugal caps it at 50% of a household's net income.

Payment, two incomes
15%
Payment, one income
30%

Buy or rent

Owning a 90 m² home costs less each month than renting it. Owning counts interest, running costs and the return the deposit could earn, at the median sale price. Repaying the loan is saving, so it is left out.

Rent per month
€473
Owning per month
€290

Asking against valuation

Sellers ask 9.6% less than banks value homes at. A year ago the gap was −11.3%.

Gap today
−9.6%
Change in a year
+1.7 pp

New homes

161.4% more homes were licensed for construction in the last 12 months than in an average year of the past decade.

Licensed, 12 months
59
Per 1,000 residents
1.5

Foreign buyers

Figures for Beiras e Serra da Estrela: Guarda has no reliable figures of its own.

Over the last 12 months, buyers domiciled abroad paid 23.0% less per m² than buyers living in Portugal.

Abroad against residents
−23.0%

People and new homes

In 2025 the population fell by 133 while 27 homes were finished.

Homes finished, 2025
27
Population change, 2025
−133

Empty homes

11.9% of the 28,416 homes counted in the 2021 census stood empty, whether for sale, to let or for other reasons.

Empty, 2021 census
11.9%
Empty homes
3,383

Renovation

In 2025, 6% of the buildings finished were work on existing buildings: extensions, alterations and reconstructions.

Work on existing buildings, 2025
6%
Reconstructions per 100 new buildings
0.0

Public housing works

Public bodies signed €8.8M of housing works here in 2025, and €20.8M since 2012.

Signed in 2025
€8.8M
Per resident, 2025
€216

Data: INE, ECB and others · updated October 27, 2026

Asking prices and bank valuations are not sale prices. This is a description of public data, not financial advice.

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